Logistics at a Crossroads | Vol. 8: Policy Whiplash and the Cost of Uncertainty

Wednesday's market rally, driven by the White House’s tariff pause announcement—excluding China—felt like a flash of sunlight through storm clouds. The EU’s matching 90-day reprieve added to the optimism. But from a planner’s seat, this isn’t clarity—it’s chaos disguised as calm.

In logistics, we don’t plan in 90-day windows. We plan for seasons, for manufacturing cycles, for year-over-year forecasts. A temporary easing of tariffs doesn’t give us the runway we need—it gives us turbulence.

As a planner, I’m watching schedules shift, contingency plans multiply, and production teams wait for confirmation on which materials they’ll even be using. With China still excluded, critical components remain cost-volatile. And domestic suppliers—already stretched thin by reshoring demands and rising input costs—are under pressure to deliver consistency they simply can’t guarantee. Not when policy signals change week to week.

This isn’t just about what’s being taxed—it’s about how we plan around what we don’t know. Every delayed update, every sudden shift in trade stance means reshuffling routes, scrambling to secure space, or holding freight longer than financially viable. That hurts everyone in the supply chain—from manufacturer to carrier to customer.

And for those betting on domestic production as a buffer? The reality is sobering. Many U.S.-based operations are still recovering from workforce attrition and capacity constraints. The idea of “just make it here” is noble—but until investments catch up to demand, it's not a solution, it’s a bottleneck.

We need more than a pause. We need policy built for the long game—one that aligns economic strategy with the logistics reality on the ground. Without it, we’re not just managing freight—we’re managing uncertainty, day in and day out.